And so, mercifully, the 2021 Penn State football season ends with a meager whimper. A 24-10 defeat at the hands of the Arkansas Razorbacks sends the Lions, tail between their legs, to the cold, hard winter known as the offseason. I threatened you all about a month ago that I was going to do a wrap up of the season; well, here we are. A season that somehow saw the Lions beat Wisconsin and Auburn in their first two big tests and rise to #4 in the CFP ranings, then inexplicably lose to a fraudulent Iowa team and a moribund Illinois team.
A season comprised of “good effort, good try” games (at Ohio State), and “if only this one play went differently” games (at Michigan, at Michigan State). In the end, 7-6 is 7-6. Even early, the signs were there. And as the late, great Dennis Green once said, “they are who we thought they were.”
Just to put your mind at ease, I am not going to do a game-by-game recap. You can go read those in a million different places. What I am going to do is give you a little bit of analysis sprinkled over the four main components of a football team: offense, defense, special teams, and coaching. So as to not make this unbearably long to read, I am going to dedicate an installment to each facet. Today, we start with the offense.
By the numbers (out of 130 FBS teams):
· 82nd in total offense
· 26th in passing offense (268 ypg)
· 118th in rushing offense (107 ypg)
· 90th in scoring offense (25 ppg)
· 75th in 3rd down conversion percentage (38%)
· 60th in 1st downs
Year One of the Mike Yurcich era got off to a rather pedestrian start, to be kind. The numbers above aren’t those of an elite team. They’re not even those of an upper tier B1G team. They’re the numbers of a middle-of-the road program that is, well, 7-6.
Let’s break it down, shall we? We’ll start with the captain of the offense, the big red dog himself, Sean Clifford (and the other QBs).
Stat-wise, Clifford had an ok year. 261-428 for 3,107 yards, 21 touchdowns, 8 interceptions. Solid, if unspectacular. Not elite nationally, not elite within his own conference. In the B1G, Clifford ranks 6th in efficiency behind:
· CJ Stroud (4435 yds, 44 TDs, 6 INTs)
· Aiden O’Connell (3711 yds, 28 TDs, 11 INTs)
· Taulia Tagovailoa (3874 yds, 28 TDs, 11 INTs)
· Adrian Martinez (2863 yds, 14 TDs, 10 INTs)
· Payton Thorne (3240 yds, 27 TDs, 10 INTs)
Clifford was solid vs almost everyone. He played great against Auburn, Ohio State, and Michigan State. Despite throwing 2 INTs in the first quarter vs Iowa, he was carving up the Hawkeyes. His only real clunker was against Illinois.
But that’s really the point. He was consistently good-ish. To be an elite program, you need a QB that is consistently GREAT.
The guys over at BWI (Blue White Illustrated) showed a graphic that I found interesting. Clifford is one of the better QBs with a clean pocket (19th in the country), but nearly dead last when he faced pressure. Oh, and did he face pressure.
In total, Penn State QB’s had an overall completion percentage of 59.9% (with 486 attempts). In college. Where guys are open—to be fair, Clifford was a skosh over 60%. This ranks 76th in the country. Mississippi State led the country with a 73% completion percentage, albeit in a Mike Leach air raid offense. The only B1G teams with lower completion percentages?
· Minnesota: 59% (out of 275 attempts)
· Wisconsin: 59% (out of 300 attempts)
· Rutgers: 58% (out of 394 attempts)
· Northwestern: 57% (out of 365 attempts)
Not great, Bob. If you’re throwing the ball as much as Penn State had to, you gotta complete closer to 65% of your throws, or else you’re looking at a lot of short drives. Oh, did I mention that Penn State was 110th in the country in Time of Possession? And 75th in 3rd Down conversions (repeat).
Wondering how the better teams in the conference did in terms of completion percentage?
· Ohio State: 70% (out of 494 attempts)
· Michigan: 63% (out of 395 attempts)
· Michigan State: 61% (out of 400 attempts)
What makes this even more remarkable is that PSU consistently has a stable of good-to-great wide receivers and tight ends. I hope all the Penn State fans out there realize what you got to see in
Jahan Dotson was truly the stuff of Penn State legend. He was Saquon Barkley
at the WR spot. Generational. Parker Washington was good and will be great. Keandre Lambert Smith might be good. Malick Meiga might be good. Cam Sullivan-Brown will not be good, nor will Daniel George (not even sure if they’re back next year). There is some freshman talent in that group, but whether they’re the second coming of Williams-Norwood-Butler remains to be seen.
The tight end group had moments of sheer brilliance followed by moments of maddening inconsistency. Strange could be a good one but cannot block his way out of a paper bag. Johnson is solid, but disappears, and Warren is a freak that didn’t get enough attention. These guys have the tools to dominate a game or be a competent safety valve. They were neither.
But it all starts with the QB. As a 5th year senior (eligible for AARP benefits), Clifford missed way too many routine throws, and failed to make the occasional spectacular one. His decision making never seemed to improve, and he doesn’t have the arm talent to make up for it. He’s a gunslinger with a .22 instead of a .357.
“But Grumpy,” you might say, “Penn State wasn’t that far behind Michigan and Michigan State in terms of completion percentage, and Clifford ranked above McNamara in efficiency.” True, and thank you for playing a wonderful straightman. You can get away with a low 60’s percentage rate when you average 213 and 175 ypg on the ground (Michigan, Michigan St, respectively). It’s called balance. It’s called complimentary football. It’s called a winning formula, especially in the B1G.
This warrants a closer look at the running game performance for the 2021 season (WARNING, THIS MAY BE UNCOMFORTABLE).
As mentioned at the top of the show, the Lions managed 107 yards per game on the ground. Good for 118th in the country. Only Purdue had fewer yards on the ground, per game. And if you’re Purdue and you have David Bell, you get a pass.
Keyvone Lee (soon-to-be-departed?) led the team in rushing. 108 attempts for 530 yards (4.8 ypc) and 2 TDs. You saw that right. The leading rusher averaged 8 carries/41 yards per game.
Noah Cain, the other guy, had similar carries, fewer yards, and 2 more touchdowns. Until the Michigan State game, the longest TD run for a Penn State running back was 7 yards.
John Lovett (Baylor transfer) and Devyn Ford were largely inconsequential participants in the running game for different reasons. Clifford was the third leading ball carrier, with a grand total of 163 yards on 99 carries (a mix of designed runs and runs out of sheer panic and terror).
In a word, this was laughable.
Bear with me, we’re almost done because I can’t take much more.
No Penn State running back topped 100 yards. Not surprising when you’re getting 8 CARRIES PER GAME. Franklin’s (and by default his OC’s) philosophy is to rotate backs until one takes over, shows a hot hand. But they never let these guys develop a rhythm. Case in point, the recently completed Outback Bowl. Keyvone Lee averaged 10 yards per touch (running and catching) on his first 5 touches. He got 3 touches the rest of the game. What. In. The. Actual. Flapjack? We’ll talk play calling when we get to the coaching portion of the interrogation. But seriously, how can you even begin to establish any semblance of a running game when 1) you have a different guy carrying the ball all the time, and 2) your main dudes are getting 16 carries between them?
Now, these guys aren’t without blame. Lee, especially early in the season, danced around too much. As a 6’4, 230 guy…go forward, young man. Cain, well…he still doesn’t look right after his foot injury in 2020. Tentative, slow to hit the hole…and neither has the wiggle to make guys miss in the open field. Additionally, neither has the speed to break away from anyone. Paging Nick Singleton…your table is ready.
Remember the 3rd down completion percentage (38)? Know why it’s so low? Because when you can’t run the ball, you have a lot of 3RD AND LONGS, PEOPLE! Oh, and when they did have 3rd or 4th and short, the conversion rate was sinister. I mean, a literal affront to football. Why, you ask? Two words: Offensive line.
Seriously, bear with me. This is the last piece. I’m beginning to stop caring.
I’m not going to get into the techniques of playing offensive line because I don’t know anything about them. As a casual observer, this is what I saw: a line that 1) didn’t hold its blocks, 2) didn’t move anyone, or 3) couldn’t get to the second level. I swear, every time I looked up, Miranda (center) was on his butt, while the two guards were 5 yards downfield blocking air while a DT was muching on Keyvone Lee’s prostrate carcass.
Rumor has it that OL coach Phil Trautwein’s techniques don’t mesh with Yurcich’s scheme requirements. If that’s the case, something has to give. If this team abandons the run as quickly as they did this year, then, my friends, 7-6 is the new norm.
Ok, I promised that would be the last piece. I rushed it because this part is already getting long. The bottom line is that Penn State has regressed offensively from the Moorhead-Rahne-Ciarocca years. If this team can’t find an identity and if the roster can’t execute that identity, mediocrity ensues.
Clifford is back for a 6th year, for better or worse. He is who he is. He’s gutsy, he’s a leader, but he’s an average quarterback. While there is hope in a certain 5-star QB from Medina, Ohio, if the offensive line doesn’t improve and if the play calling/execution doesn’t improve, we’re looking at Hackenberg 2015 all over again.
The halcyon days of 2016-2019 seem so long ago.
Next time: Defense
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