As we wind down the 2021 season, I thought it would be fun to pontificate about next season. I guarantee few, if any, of these will come to fruition. That's why they're BOLD!
1) Alabama will lose 2 games in the regular season. I don’t know how “tough” Alabama’s schedule is, but there are some intriguing matchups. The Tide head to Texas in Week 2, after what could be a sneaky tough season opener vs Utah State. It will be year 2 under Sark in Austin, so I’d expect to see some improvement. The Tide also have a stretch of 3 road games in 4--at Tennessee, home to Mississippi Stat, then back-to-back road games at LSU and at Ole Miss.
2) A Group of 5 team will not make an appearance in the CFP top 4 at any time in the season. Fair or not, Cincinnati’s performance in the CFP semifinal has cast a pall over the notion that a G5 team deserves consideration for the playoffs. I have gone on the record to state that I don’t think a G5 team will ever be one of the 4 BEST teams in the country. Ever. The Bearcats lose a ton of production this season, as does AAC-mate Houston. Outside of those 2 teams, BYU might be the best shot at a G5 team getting in. And BYU’s schedule? Woof. Host Baylor in week 2, at Oregon in week 3, and games against Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Stanford. No way they get through that with only one loss.
3) Clemson finds a QB and runs the table in the ACC and reenters the CFP. Everyone was quick to throw dirt on Dabo and the Tigers after they started the year 4-3. They ended up 10-3. DJ Uiagalelei is not an elite starting quarterback. In fact, he’s not very good at all. But Clemson’s defense is still elite, and they still have more 4 and 5 stars on their roster than most of the Big Ten (outside of Ohio State) combined. Wake Forest loses their dynamic QB, as does Pitt. Florida State is still a couple years away. So is Miami. UVA/VaTech…more than a couple years away.
4) One big name coach either retires or moves to the NFL. Rumors are that Jim Harbaugh might be interested in moving back to the NFL. Makes sense. He’s probably gotten Michigan as far as it can go in the current playoff construct. Plus, he’s had success in the NFL and understands the landscape. But if not Harbaugh, who could make a splash either by walking away or moving on up? The track record of college coaches going to the NFL isn’t exactly stellar, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Lane Kiffin found himself back in the league. He understands the NFL and is undoubtedly a helluva better coach now than he was when he had the Raiders gig.
5) The overtime rules undergo another change. The NCAA just can’t seem to get it right when it comes to overtime. The latest abomination is the alternating 2 point conversions after the 2nd OT, where teams actually have to walk across the field after one play until the game ends. I think the NFL has it mostly right, but I think that’s too drastic for college football to implement in a year. So what could the change be? Maybe go back to the original rules, but take away the option for kicking a field goal after the 2nd OT. And, if it’s tied after the 3rd OT, it’s a tie.
6) Name/Image/Likeness dynamics force the NCAA to institute some regulatory measures. Just this week, Charlie Batch (remember him?) offered Oklahoma QB Caleb Williams a $1 million NIL deal to play at Eastern Michigan for a year. Oh, there was NO subtlety to it. Batch’s tweet said just that. Come here, we’ll pay you. As Bill O’Brien mentioned this week, the NIL/Transfer Portal dynamics are just like free agency, but without the rules. If the NCAA (as ineffective as it is) can’t come up with the rules, the big boys in CFB will have to. If not, expect the CFB transaction list to look a lot like what we see in the NFL.
7) A defensive player wins the Heisman. DE Aidan Hutchinson was a finalist in 2021 but it’s possible he wasn’t the best defensive player in the country. Alabama linebacker Will Anderson racked up 97 tackles, an otherworldly 31 tackles for loss and 17.5 sacks. That’s disruptive. With CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Trayvon Henderson, and a slew of other RBs/QBs in the mix, odds are slim that a defensive player wins. But if it happens, it will be Anderson.
8) There will be another splash in conference realignment/expansion. Oklahoma and Texas made news by switching to the SEC. Cincinnati is off to the Big 12. I don’t think it’s done. This is the year I think Notre Dame makes it official and joins the ACC in all sports. As an independent, Notre Dame is dependent on strength of schedule as its pathway to the CFP. When your schedule includes (in 2021) Stanford, USC, Navy, Wisconsin, you have to hope all of those teams are having good years. They did not. Which means your margin for error is small. Oh, and ND played UNC, UVA, VT, and Florida State this season. Seems like an ACC schedule to me!
9) The CFP committee officially approves a 12-team playoff. Each Power 5 conference champ will get an automatic bid, as will the top-rated G5 team. That will leave 6 at large teams. Top 4 seeds will get a bye, and first round games will happen at the home of the higher seeded team. 2nd round games will be played at different bowl sites. Semifinals and championship will continue to rotate. As a result, schedules will be reduced to 10 games (2 out of conference, 8 conference games) + a league championship. Done. Sharpie.
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