Football betting…why am I so bad?
Back in 2004, I was stationed at the Pentagon (technically, I worked in Rosslyn). I was doing an analytical job for the Air Force, which if any of you know me, you’d have had a hearty chuckle at the very notion.
I was talking to a colleague one day in the coffee area and asked if he thought we could get a football pool going. I figured in an office full of analysts, there might be some takers.
So, we set up the “Pick 15.” The concept was simple. there would be a weekly menu of games, consisting of 10 NCAA games, and the entire NFL slate. From those, the analyst would select 5 college games and 10 NFL games, hence the “Pick 15.” And, we would use point spreads vice simply picking the winner.
We’ve been running the same game since. And in those 17 years, I’ve finished first once. Once. I've finished with an above 50% selection rate 3 times.
The approaches to the game by my colleagues has varied widely. We had one analyst that built this ridiculous gonkulator that analyzed EVERYTHING. Day game after a night game on turf with the kickoff below 57.5 degrees, etc, etc, etc. He routinely finished in the middle of the pack. We’ve had the colloquial “which mascot could beat up the other mascot,” “which uniforms do I like better,” methods. All pick about 50% of the correct winners. I don't.
We have one guy this year who is using the uber-scientific method of “First 5 away college games, first 10 away NFL games.” Teams be damned, spreads be damned. He’s currently in first place, picking at an almost obscene 60%.
For me, this year has been an abject Hindenburgh-esque disaster. Sure, I’ve had my weeks where I get 10 right. I’ve also had weeks were I’ve gotten 3 right. I am averaging around 7 out of 15 correct. In other words, Vegas would love me.
Now, I consider myself a relatively astute observer of all things football. Just last night, I stayed up to watch the Air Force-Nevada game (Air Force won in 3 OT—see, Penn State, that’s how you do it). I will watch football whenever it’s on. And I think I have a pretty good idea of the landscape of college and the NFL.
So why am I so bad at this?
For one thing, it appears I give too much credit to home field advantage. After doing some preliminary data mining, I don’t know that there really is an advantage. At least not recently. I think for certain teams there can be, but in an aggregate sense, I am not seeing it. Now, my research for this article only looks at 2019 and 2021, but I think it’s illustrative. (Numbers courtesy of teamrankings.com…math errors are my own)
· In 2019, home teams were 136-124 straight up. That’s 52%
· In 2019, home teams covered the spread 44% of the time
· In 2019, home teams covered as a favorite 42% of the time
· In 2021 (so far), home teams are 71-72 straight up
· In 2021, home teams covered the spread 41% of the time
· In 2021, home teams covered as a favorite 37% of the time
Bottom line, home teams are not to be trusted.
Another interesting item that I found was that as of week 6, double digit NFL favorites were covering 57% of the time. I haven’t found current stats, but I can’t imagine it’s changed that much. Now, I had always thought that anything over a touchdown in the NFL was risky, and that the underdog was a safer bet. But, what do I know?
Two myths have been debunked. Home teams, even as favorites, aren’t a good bet, and double-digit underdogs aren’t a good bet.
So that’s the quantitative reason I am not doing well this season. Oh, that and Vegas knows what they’re doing.
Qualitatively, my timing just sucks. I mean Miami is a 7-point home dog vs Baltimore and not only covers, but wins outright? Miami? Same with the WFT. A 7-point home dog vs Tampa, and they win outright. The landscape is littered with these types of missteps by yours truly. Let’s look at my glorious 1-win (NFL) week, shall we? My picks in bold.
· Cleveland 41 at Cincinnati 16 (-2): Burrow has his worst game of the year.
· Denver 30 at Dallas 16 (-9.): I felt this game was a lock. It was. I just took the wrong side
· Houston 9 at Miami 17 (-6): I felt like Miami giving ANYBODY 6 points was too much.
· Atlanta 27 at New Orleans 25 (-6): Atlanta has been horrible this year.
· New England 24 (-4) at Carolina 6: First one right so far.
· Buffalo 6 (-14) at Jacksonville 9: WITAF.
· Minnesota 31, Baltimore 34 (-5): Tying touchdown with 1:03 left in the game. SMDH.
· Green Bay 7 at Kansas City 13 (-7): Late change without Rodgers; was a pick ‘em
· Arizona 31 (-2) at San Francisco 17: If Colt McCoy mollywhomps you, it’s time to quit.
· Chicago 27 at Pittsburgh 29 (-6): Chi's offense in Oct: 24, 20, 14, 3, 22 (SF)
That’s right, sports fans. 1 out of 10 correct. Every home team that I selected to cover didn't, and it wasn’t even close. Vegas would welcome me with open arms.
I’ve entertained the thought of making my picks, then right before submitting them reversing them. But my brain KNOWS that I would be thinking that and would just manipulate me so that the teams I select would’ve been the ones I wanted all along. I am weak that way.
Last week, I decided to have my wife pick the games as well, so we could compare results. If she, a casual observer at best, bested my score, she would pick for me the rest of the season.
We tied.
Thanks, as always, for your time.
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