How do you know when it's time to leave...?

Coming up with topics to write about--that haven't been driven into a g--d--- bridge abutment--is not an easy thing to do. When you start really looking at what people who are paid to do this are writing about, there's really nothing new out there. It's largely nuanced spins of mainly the same subjects.

I did actually see an interesting take on the "who will be the next coach at (insert school here)" article. Adam Rittenberg wrote a why leave/why stay piece that I kind of skimmed (https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/32637888/the-cases-eight-hot-college-football-coaching-candidates-stay-go).

I was looking for his take on James Franklin, of course. (For what it's worth, I don't think CJF is going anywhere.)

Still, it got me to thinking; how does a coach know when it's time to go...assuming he has a choice.

Look, no one but the actual coaches making the decision know why they do what they do. I get that. I think it would be fun to look at a couple of examples to play the what-could-they-be-thinking game. The first two examples that I thought would be interesting are Mack Brown and Bill O'Brien. Both coaches left on their own terms, were forced out, and re-entered the profession.

Mack Brown (UNC-Texas-Retirement-UNC)

Mack Brown took the reigns at UNC in 1988 after 3 years at Tulane.

His first two seasons in Chapel Hill were identical 1-10 records. Brown would proceed to go 67-26-1 in the next 8 seasons, with consecutive 10-win seasons prior to his departure. Texas and their deep-pocketed donors came calling, and why wouldn't Brown leave? He was 47, not quite in the prime of his coaching window, and had already taken a pedestrian ACC program to a top-10 ranking. What more could he realistically accomplish at Kenan Stadium? Reason he left: More to accomplish

In Austin, Brown was arguably one of the top 5 coaches in all of CFB. He amassed a 166-48 record in 16 seasons, winning the National Championship in 2005 (still one of the best CFB games in history). He averaged 10 wins per season during his time in burnt orange. But, the last 4 years saw him go 5-7, 8-5, 9-4, 8-5. Word was he had lost the team. So he hung up the whistle and joined the crew in Bristol, where he stayed for 6 years. Reason he left: Forced out

He was probably making some good coin at ESPN. Why go back to the grind of recruiting, boosters, NCAA oversight, apathetic administrations, etc? I'm guessing the sour taste in his mouth after the departure from Texas stuck with him during his time behind the mic. Plus, seeing his old stomping grounds mired in mediocrity under Larry Fedora probably didn't sit well either. Brown decided, at 68 years old, to test the "you can't go home again" adage to resurrect a once again middling ACC program. Since his return, he's gone 20-15 in 3 seasons. In a place like UNC, where a once-in-awhile 10-win season is probably good enough, Mack seems right at home.

Bill O'Brien (Patriots OC-Penn State-Texans-Alabama OC)

Prior to taking the HC position at Penn State (more on that in a bit), BOB was probably best known for getting in the face of TB12 after said cyborg threw a pick vs Washington in a December

, 2011 game. Prior to his time in New England, BOB bounced around the CFB ranks. Brown, Georgia Tech (twice), Notre Dame, Maryland, and Duke were all stops on BOB's rise through the ranks. When the scandal hit Penn State, no established coach was going to touch that program with a 10-foot pole. An aspiring young coach might...and if he didn't succeed, he had a suitcase full of excuses. Reason he left: Opportunity

I will go on record in saying that think O'Brien's two years in State College were more important to that program than any coach's stint at any other school, and it's not close. It's not an understatement to say that O'Brien kept PSU from completely disappearing from the CFB landscape. I mean, a coach with NFL pedigree wading through the charred remains of a proud program was invaluable to the Nittany Lions' survival. And that was before the sanctions were handed down. He kept the program together (for the most part), recruited some amazing skill position players, and had TWO WINNING SEASONS! He coached a bunch of....fighters....and they played their hearts out for him. But...it was always his goal to coach in the NFL So, when the Texans came calling, he answered. Reason he left: Opportunity

With the Texans, he had mixed results, but never really seemed comfortable as a head coach in the league. While he did go to the playoffs in 4 of his 7 seasons at the helm, he only won 2 playoff games. When he became the self-appointed GM, things fell apart, culminating in both the disastrous DeAndre Hopkins trade, and the beginning of the end of the Deshaun Watson era. He was summarily fired. Reason he left: Involuntary

His return to coaching, this time as the OC at Alabama, has just begun. He's rumored to be the leading candidates for a number of open or soon-to-be-open HC jobs. Would he leave the Alabama empire to take the job at Washington? USC, LSU? PSU (if Franklin leaves)? Is he still looking to get back to the NFL as a coordinator or HC? That will be an interesting story to follow.

So, look. Leaving for opportunity is pretty obvious. In the case of both of the aforementioned coaches, their decisions are/were not surprising. Their opportunities were pretty clear cut, right? I mean, it's not every day Texas comes open...well, it didn't USED to be that way. And it's not everyday where a guy with no head coaching experience gets the keys to a traditional blue blood.

But other cases might not be so clear cut. Take a guy like Shane Beamer. He's rumored to be a target for the newly vacant Virginia Tech gig (for obvious reasons). Would Blacksburg be any better of an opportunity than Columbia? Maybe? Is it more of a lateral move? Or is it his dream job, and conference/recruiting ground/etc be damned? What about Mario Cristobal? What would it take to lure him out of Eugene? Is USC the glamour gig that does it?

I would love to hear the conversations these hot commodities have behind closed doors.

Looking briefly at other coaches, and why they might leave:

- Manny Diaz (Miami): The guy has to be frustrated. He took over a dumpster fire, righted the ship a little, but is severely hamstrung in his attempt to rebuild the brand. The U is being left behind in terms of investment in the program, and has to fight to keep in-state talent. I think he's a pretty good coach, but he might never get to show it in Coral Gables.

- Matt Campbell: If he's gonna leave, now is the time. Like Brown at UNC, he's probably done all he can at Iowa State. And, with the decline of the Big 12, his chances at reaching the CFP while in Ames are slim. Can he recruit with the big boys?

- Joe Moorhead (OC, Oregon): Does he want to be a head coach again? Or is he comfortable in his role as a coordinator? I don't think his stint in Starkville should preclude him getting another shot, but his sweet spot is at a northern school. Could see him at UCONN (no pressure), or maybe Blacksburg.

- Matt Ruhle: Are any of the open jobs enticing enough to get Ruhle to come back to the college ranks? He's in for a sizeable rebuild at Carolina...but he's also making a ton of cheddar.

- Luke Fickell: Like Campbell, his star is bright. But Cincinnati is joining a P5 conference, and they should be competitive in a weakened Big 12. I think he stays. At least until Ryan Day leaves for the NFL.

- James Franklin: Let's be real. If he wants to be the first African American coach to win a National Championship, it's not likely going to be at Penn State...unless there is major conference realignment. But, it's not gonna be at LSU, either. Realistically, USC is the only opening that would provide any "easier" path to that goal. He's not going to Blacksburg, or Gainesville, or Seattle. I think he stays, for better or for worse

If you managed to read this whole post, thanks. I don't know if it really went the way I wanted it to go, but it was fun to write. Which is why I am doing this in the first place.