First, I hope you and yours are enjoying a peaceful, healthy holiday season.
Second, after starting the bowl season 0-3, I’ve rattled off 4 in a row (to include a spot-on Tulsa/ODU score). If you haven’t read my bowl preview, there’s still time.
Now on to the matter at hand.
There are two topics that seem to rear their heads at this time of year. One is the expansion of the CFP structure; allowing more teams to compete for the CFP championship. The second is the opt out of players from their teams’ bowl games. As a good friend of mine pointed out last night, there is a casual (maybe causal?) relationship between the two topics that we will discuss here.
Heisman candidates Kenneth Walker III (Michigan State) and Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh) have both opted out of next week’s Peach Bowl to focus on getting ready for the NFL Draft. While they’re not alone, they are two of the highest profile players that chose that option. And, it’s a NY6 game in which they’ve decided not to play.
Neither Pitt nor Michigan State is competing for a national championship. And, regardless of how we fans view the bowl games, the simple fact is that if it’s not a CFP playoff game, it’s an exhibition. Walker and Pickett are making decisions based on their future. Can you blame them?
In 2016, highly touted linebacker Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame) tore his ACL and LCL during a Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State. The game wasn’t part of the CFP, it was just another bowl game. Smith’s draft stock plummeted; he was cut by the Cowboys after a couple years and is now a 3rd string linebacker on the New York Giants. It’s not hard to think that things might have been different had he not gotten hurt.
In that same year, Michigan TE Jake Butt tore his ACL in his final college game—again, not a
playoff game. He was the best TE in the nation but ended up slipping way down draft boards before being selected by Denver. He played parts of 4 seasons in the NFL before his injuries forced him to retire. Again, it’s not certain that things would have been different had he not played in a bowl game, but it has to be considered.
I chose these two examples since they represent what I think is a more clouded strata of this discussion. Here’s what I mean. If a guy opts out of the Gasparilla Bowl (Florida WR Justin Shorter, a solid WR on a bad offense took a nasty hit and had to be carted off), few outside the program would notice. And those within the program? Is a guy on a 6-6 team really going to get bent out of shape if a teammate (who is draft-able) opts out? I don’t know for sure, but my guess is no.
But, is it different if a guy opts out of a NY6 bowl? Or a Jan 1st bowl? I’m sure coaches and players want to win these games. I am also sure that coaches and players get way more out of the 15 additional practices than they do the actual game. Is winning the Outback Bowl going to provide a bump to a 7-5 Penn State’s recruiting efforts? Maybe? I’d be surprised if a kid is deciding on whether or not to go to a school based on the result of a bowl game.
So if you’re a Picket or a Walker III, what are the pros/cons? NFL Scouts don’t seem to care if you play in a bowl game. Is one more game of film going to boost your draft stock. Nope.
So the pros are: 1) one more game with your teammates, 2) winning a high profile game on national TV, 3) maybe some NIL spikes, 4) a really gaudy trophy. The cons: 1) potentially career ending injury costing millions of dollars in future earnings and a lifetime of financial security.
Seems pretty clear cut to me.
Message boards are full of sofa warriors clamoring that these players owe it to their teammates, their coaches, their fans to play in these exhibition games. They shout from the comfort of their pleather couches that “they’re on scholarship, make them play,” and “they’re quitters if they don’t play.” This is such a lazy, outdated argument.
Ok, so let’s hit the second part of this topic: expansion of the CFP. I don’t know what the right number of teams is, or the best way to maintain the current bowl structure, etc. What I do think is that for the guys playing in the Gasparilla Bowl, the opt-out decision is still fairly cut and dry. Let’s assume that the playoffs expand to 12 teams. In the latest CFP Rankings that would be:
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. Georgia
4. Cincinnati
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Baylor
8. Ole Miss
9. Oklahoma State
10. Michigan State
11. Utah
12. Pittsburgh
Can we assume that if the playoffs expanded that Walker III and Pickett would not opt out? Absolutely. Could it still happen? Yeah, I guess anything is possible. If Aidan Hutchison was told he was going to be the #1 overall pick in the draft, would the temptation be there to sit this one out? That’s a question for him, I guess. But anything’s possible. The main thing is that if you expand the playoffs, thereby increasing the number of meaningful postseason games, you potentially reduce the number of opt outs.
So how do you get folks to play the “meaningless” games? Insurance policies, “prize” money for the teams, etc, have all surfaced as options. I don’t see that happening. Most of the smaller games’ corporate sponsors lose money hand over fist. Opt outs will just be part of that landscape.
The bottom line is this: if a kid wants to sit out a bowl game (no matter which game) because he’s looking to his future, so be it. If you think he’s a quitter, or owes you anything, go back to yelling from your pleather couch.
More Random Thoughts
Texas A&M and Hawaii have both dropped out of their bowl games due to “COVID and season-ending injuries.” I don’t understand how “season-ending injuries” just popped up.
I think they should not include the bowl game in retaining a player’s redshirt. Right now, if a player plays more than 4 games, they burn the shirt. I think they should be able to play 5 if one is a bowl game.
Will the NCAA grant another “COVID” year like they this year? It’s gonna get ugly when players decide they want to use that COVID year and the coaches don’t want them back.
Rutgers taking TAMU’s spot in the Gator Bowl is absurd. How can you possibly get a team prepared to play a game this quick unless most players hung around the facility after their last game? Wake is an 11-point favorite. Give the points.
I give major props to the Interim Coaches that take their teams through bowl prep and the game. I mean, these guys know they don’t likely have a job after this game, yet folks like Greg Knox at UF give everything they have to these kids. Would be easy to mail it in but they don’t.
Beer I tried this week: 1554 (New Belgium Brewing Co):A really solid dark ale. Smooth but not boring
As always, thanks for reading.
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